Thursday, November 16, 2006

Obama 2008

Over the past few weeks there has been a great deal of chatter about the need for Senator Obama to consider a run for the presidency. He has said that he shall decide whether or not to run in the next couple of weeks and political pundits are eagerly awaiting that announcement. There seems to be a lot of support for an Obama run, with most advocates pointing to his popularity, youth and general air of positive leadership.

I find myself not convinced of the efficacy of an Obama 2008 campaign. If he decides to enter the race he shall receive a lot of media attention and shall be considered – initially – a front runner. However, as some have noted, the honeymoon is likely to be short. Remember Howard Dean was the media darling in 2004. Mr. Obama has yet to be given a through vetting, or face a substantial opponent; this is unlikely to happen in the primary season. Especially if Clinton seeks her opposition research on him. I am not sure how well Obama would do in rough and tumble politics, when the microscope is on him and what he has done.

It has been noted that Sen. Obama does not have much experience, especially in national issues and foreign policy. Those who would argue that Clinton and Bush didn’t have much experience should remember this is a post 9/11, post Iraq world. He is likely to face some heavy weights – in the primary or general – if he decides to run.

Obama is likely to be a very attractive VP choice, and he should do all he can to ensure an X-Obama ticket. There are a number of positives to a VP run; he would get the requisite campaign experience and some of the critical media scrutiny. If the ticket were to fail, he would be the front runner in 2012, and unlike John Edwards, would still have a job and the visibility that comes with it. Moreover, it would be an extra four years to sharpen his policy credentials, and prime the country for a run, just like Ms. Clinton has done since 2004. He could also consider running for a different office to gain executive experience, 2010 is an open gubernatorial election in Illinois.

If an X-Obama ticket wins, then he has four to eight years to prepare the nation for his candidacy and be the front runner in 2016. Plus, he gets added policy and political experience and enhances his stature.

A VP run would seem to be the ideal way forward.

6 Comments:

Blogger houstonmacbro said...

i think my primary concern is the same as yours. obama is only a 2nd year senator and has very little experience.

while i like his messages overall, i think he needs a little more time to season and gain some experience.

however, conventional wisdom teaches us to strike while the iron is hot!

6:45 AM  
Blogger 3N said...

Very good analysis. I think that Obama should be concerned about race, his race!
Unless he is running for president in Kenya, I expect all the conservatives to come out and vote against Obama based only on him being black. If anyone wants to argue this, then explain how there has never been a black senator from any southern states. For that matter Obama is only the 3rd African American senator.

The VP angle is what makes the most sense. The democratic party should go for Gore-Obama candidacy. He would give Gore the charisma that he lacks and Gore would fulfil the experience factor in their ticket.

7:26 AM  
Blogger SisBigBones said...

Good points you guys bring up, and I especially agree with 3n. Fact is, Americans are not ready for a black president (nor a female one for that matter). It sounds good, but come election day, I can assure you that there are a lot of prejudices that many Americans still hold and this will clearly be reflected. Let Obama take it one step at a time, let him enjoy his term as senator and gain the political experience he needs. He's still an infant in politics and there's no point in trying to grow too fast.

9:47 AM  
Blogger Mimmz said...

Agree with you completely on this one. I had actually mentioned the same thing, (personally I had filled the X with a Clinton-Obama run)in a post midterm elections post.

2 other points to consider is his race. This is America and it is not above racism yet. And the other factor is inheriting Iraq with no previous credentials to compensate for the mess that might still continue to be Iraq.

10:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Going by the comments, it seems that none of us thus far is willing to give Obama his/her vote for the Presidency… apart from Oprah I guess. Well, I will have to agree with you all, but not on the arguments made so far.

Race…

The difference between Obama and other African American folks out there is that he knows where his from… his ancestors that is! Most African Americans know there ancestors are from Africa but they do know which county. This has been one of the main advantages Obama enjoys. He is not looking for where he’s from and carries no bitterness or grudges unlike most African American. Race will play a role, but not a key role were he to be nominated as Democrats flag barer. If anything, it might be to his advantage since the opponents will be scared to run those ‘creative’ campaign ads we’ve been witnessing in recent times, least there branded as being RACIST! But as I said, granted some will vote against him because of his skin color, but majority of voters are or will see beyond that when time to cast there ballot comes.

Inexperience…

Just because you cannot find some dirt on someone it does not necessarily mean that the person has no experience. I am sure once and if he offers his candidacy for the primaries the news outlets will find some dirt on him, but chances are that it will be so insignificant that all they’ll be preaching will be his inexperience. The media has already started playing that already and some of us are already buying it. This should not be left to be a deciding factor, heck you can always buy the best experience and knowledge the world has to offer once in office.

Rock star image and politics…

Obama has the charisma no doubt, but he is not a politician. His rock star image and charisma will not necessary translate into vote. How much money can he raise? How far is he will to go when it comes to real politics of name calling and the whole theatric that politics is today? Thus far he has been able to dodge most bullets coming his way, but gunning for the Presidency of a world supper power is a whole different ball game. He is too good to be the President of this Great Nation. This Great Nation has away of doing business with the rest of the world and Obama’s stature is too good for that. A US president has to shake Israelis hand using his/her right hand, and shock Sudan or Syria etc with the left hand. A US president has to impose travel warnings on countries that refuse to bend its way. Can Obama really do this?

I do not think he should offer himself for the primaries but should he choose to do so I would be one of his adherents. If he chooses not to run for office, he should give a strong indication that he is willing to be a running mate to whoever wins because the Vice President position is the highest office he will ever hold in this Great Nation.

Al Gore-Obama is the way to go!

1:30 PM  
Blogger Githush said...

Wonderful points all around. There seems to be some agreement on the possibility of an Obama candidacy.

@Mimmz: a Clinton-Obama ticket would be interesting, but as one Dem put it, its way too much history at once (Race & Gender)

@3N and Anonymous: Gore-Obama, thats a ticket that would get elected. However, Dems may find it difficult to elect a loser (Gore or Kerry). But it is a ticket that could win. Two intellectual heavy weights, with some populism and charisma.

3:31 AM  

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