Dump Cheney????

As part of the continued post-election discussions, there have been a number of calls for Bush to replace VP Cheney in the run up to the 2008 elections. This would give the republicans a prime figure to coalesce around in the run up to the election, and give the appointee a head start in the general election. Names bandied about include, Condoleezza Rice, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and Bill Frist.

If the president were to ask Cheney to resign (on health grounds most argue) he would be setting himself up for a battle with the Democrat controlled congress, he may be able to rally the base, but he’s unlikely to be able to pick a candidate who will sail through nomination hearings.

The candidate – if confirmed – is likely to be the presumptive republican nominee (though this is not assured, especially with only 1 year left and a field of eager presidential wannabes), primed to fight it out with the presumptive Democratic candidate Sen. Clinton. However, the election of said candidate shall not be assured. Consider that since the 1830’s only two sitting VP’s (Martin Van Buren, George Bush) have been elected to the Oval Office on their own merit: “Van Buren’s Curse” as some call it. And they both followed very popular and charismatic presidents (Reagan and Jackson). Gore, Humphrey, and Nixon are examples of the cursed. Having an incumbent VP won’t guarantee a win.

Moreover, this hypothetical nominee would be saddled by the Bush administrations policies, especially Iraq, and considering the “Run against Bush” campaign that was 2006, one wonders if any serious candidate would consider the position as Bush’s VP. This may be too much of a load to bear and may doom any candidate.

It’s is said that presidents in the second term consider their legacy to be an important preoccupation, and Bush may be tempted to appoint a VP (Condi Rice) that would assure his place in the history books. But he already has a legacy, IRAQ. He should be focused on dealing with Iraq, not on empty legacy hunts.