Friday, June 22, 2007

Giuliani v. Bloomberg

Since New York mayor Bloomberg switched his party affiliation a few days ago, many have speculated about the impact that a Bloomberg candidacy is likely to have on the current field of candidates. The focus has primarily been on Bloombergs likely impact on the chances of republicans; and in particular Rudy Giuliani's chances in the general election. Conventional wisdom goes that Bloomberg would hurt a Giuliani presidential run and would hand the presidency to the Democrats. It would be difficult to assess clearly what Bloomberg's impact would be on the general election, however, a Bloomberg run (or potential run) could turn out to be a positive for Rudy Giuliani.

At this moment it is said that Republicans are unhappy with the current crop of GOP front runners, believing that there exists no true conservative in the top three (Mccain, Giuliani and Romney), thus, there exists a thirst for a more "solid" conservative (Read: Fred Thompson). A candidate who would be ideologically pure (or purer) than the top three and in particular Rudy Giuliani. The primary is at this point focused on the ideological impurity of the candidates, a situation that does not favor Giuliani.

With Bloomberg looming in the shadows as a potential third force that would winnow down the moderates/independent leaning repubicans in the general election (should republicans pick and ideological puritan); Giuliani could convince the party faithful that "electability" should be the top criteria for picking a candidate. This would harken back to the strategy used by the John Kerry camp in the 2004 democratic primary. Howard Dean was the media and party base favorite (much like Thompson), but Kerry was able to convince voters that they needed a candidate who could win, not one who was ideologically pure. The strategy worked. By convincing the Republicans that the next election shall be won at the center and not the wings (contra Rove's strategy). Giuliani could lock up the Republican party.

With Clinton seemingly the Democratic front runner, Giuliani could argue that only he has the ability to effectively compete against her. Moreover, he could argue that with him at the helm, New York and other North Eastern dem states would come into play, places that are attracted by social moderates, and fiscal conservatism (Giuliani) and this would make a Republican win much easier. With Giuliani v. Clinton, the Red states would remain red; purple states would be competitive and some blue may turn red and voila, repblicans maintain the white house.

With the threat of a Bloomberg run, Giuliani could scare the Republicans to the center and entice them with promises of electoral rebirth in predominantly blue states. At least in the primaries, a potential Bloomberg run could work in Giuliani's favor.


Blogger blogger said...

Cross posted at-

Giuliani 2008

10:30 AM  

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