Race Not So Close

Over the past couple of days a series of national polls have shown the presidential race as either a dead heat or Obama with a tenuous lead. The Real Clear politics poll of polls shows Obama with a 4-point lead, a lead that has been eroding since he clinched the democratic nomination.

The perceived closeness of current polls should not be a comfort to the Republicans, yes the race continues to be very close on the national scale, but when one looks at the state polls, a different story emerges. As noted above to the RCP aggregation of polls, the national race shows a 4-point advantage for Obama, many have taken this (especially considering McCain’s stumbles) as a sign that McCain remains competitive. But the national polls tell but one story, currently according to the RCP aggregate of state polls, Obama has a 255 to 163 (no toss ups) lead in the electoral-college map. (It is 304 – 234, with toss up states).

According to recent states, and based of the 2004 election, Obama is currently in the lead in the following Republican states: Montana, Wyoming, Iowa, New Mexico, Indiana, Colorado and Iowa. McCain takes nothing from the Democratic column. A similar trend is seen in those states considered “toss ups”: Missouri, Virginia, Michigan, and Minnesota. The states are where this election will be won, and at this juncture, Obama seems to have a decisive lead.

It is still early in the game, and the current state polls may reflect the bounce Obama got after beating Clinton, and it quite possible that some of states above will move to the McCain column (Montana, Wyoming, Indiana), but McCain has a lot of work to do, and if Obama forces to defend his own backyard in stead of attacking the toss up states, this might not be a close race after all.